Why Weather Apps Can’t Predict Pipe Freeze Risk.
- Morgan Williams
- Sep 11, 2025
- 3 min read
Updated: Sep 29, 2025
A night below 25°F doesn’t always mean your pipes will freeze. In this post, we break down why pipe freeze is so costly for insurers, why weather apps fall short, and how Adiabat’s Pipe Freeze Model helps carriers turn forecasts into actionable loss prevention.
Pipe Freeze and Insurance Losses - Weather Apps Fall Short
Frozen pipes are one of the most common and expensive property claims each winter. The Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction estimates freeze-related insured losses have topped $4 billion in the last decade, with State Farm alone paying out $806 million across 32,000 claims from 2022-2023. (Statefarm)
For carriers, these claims are especially challenging. They are costly to repair, highly preventable, and often contested. Adjusters must determine whether property owners took reasonable steps to prevent damage, a process that can strain customer relationships and tie up resources. Without better predictive tools, insurers remain stuck in a cycle of reactive payouts.
Why Weather Apps Don’t Tell the Whole Story
A quick glance at a weather app will not tell carriers when their policyholders’ pipes are at real risk. That’s because pipe freeze risk is shaped by more than just a single temperature forecast.
Regional differences: A 20°F night in Minnesota, where homes are insulated and codes anticipate cold, does not carry the same risk as 20°F in Texas, where water lines are often routed through unheated attics.
Duration Matters: One hour at 15°F is not equivalent to ten hours at 25°F. Prolonged cold magnifies the stress on plumbing systems.
Compounding factors: Drafts, wind, heating outages, and ageing insulation can all accelerate freezing.
The result is that two properties with the same weather forecast can face completely different outcomes. Relying on weather apps or a “below 25°F” or “below 30°F” rule of thumb leaves carriers with blind spots that increase claim frequency and severity.
Why the Next 1-5 Days of Temperature Forecasts can't tell you your risk of Pipe Freeze
Pipe freeze builds on short-term weather signals, but interpreting those signals correctly is almost impossible without advanced modeling.
A forecast dip below freezing doesn’t mean the same thing in one state compared to another
Durations often matter more than temperature itself, but that varies from property to property
Factors like wind, outages, and building codes add layers of complexity that no phone can account for
For insurers, the challenge isn’t knowing if cold weather is coming, it’s knowing which cold event will translate into claims.
That’s Where Adiabat Comes In
Frozen pipes don’t just inconvenience homeowners, they generate high-cost, high-frequency claims that carriers must resolve quickly and fairly. The challenge is that the warning signs are too complex for a simple temperature threshold or weather app to capture.
The Adiabat Pipe Freeze Model was built to solve this problem. By combining advanced forecasts with geospatial exposure data, building code context, and scenario planning, our model pinpoints where and when freeze risk will truly translate into losses.
Our support includes:
Custom geospatial forecasts and spatial analysis to pinpoint vulnerable areas.
Scenario planning for extreme cold events so organizations know what to expect.
Communication-ready graphics that insurers, utilities, and managers can use to alert policyholders, tenants, or customers.
Instead of leaving risk managers to interpret raw forecasts, Adiabat delivers clear, decision-ready insights that reduce liability and strengthen customer trust. With better forecasting and proactive planning, frozen pipe losses don’t have to be inevitable.
Read more about preventing frozen pipes and protecting your property during winter using the following sources:
Red Cross - Preventing & Thawing Frozen Pipes: https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/winter-storm/frozen-pipes.html
NAIC - Will My Homeowners Insurance Policy Cover Water Damage From a Burst Pipe?: https://content.naic.org/article/will-my-homeowners-insurance-policy-cover-water-damage-burst-pipe
Statefarm - Freeze & Thaw: Bad Mix For All: https://newsroom.statefarm.com/freeze--thaw-bad-mix-for-all/#:~:text=State%20Farm%C2%AE%20Announces%20Top,for%20only%20approximately%209%2C000%20claims.
Disclosure: This post is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal, financial, or insurance advice. Pipe freeze risk can vary widely depending on property characteristics and local conditions. Always consult with licensed professionals for guidance specific to your situation. Adiabat provides geospatial and climate modeling tools to support decision-making but does not replace the judgment of insurers, utilities, or property managers.
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